These swing voters have low expectations for divided government

These swing voters have low expectations for divided government

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People vote at a Charlotte polling location on Election Day. A.M. Stewart/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Key voters in North Carolina are pessimistic the blue wave flipping control of Congress next year will solve their economic woes.

NPR observed two online focus groups on Tuesday night with 14 voters in North Carolina who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then President Trump in 2024. Twelve said they have pretty low expectations for what Democrats can achieve with Trump still in the White House.

"I think realistically, it just means nothing's going to happen for the next two years," said 32-year-old self-described independent voter Steven, who, like all participants, took part under the condition his last name would not be used.

"President Trump would veto anything that comes to his desk, and the House and Senate majorities are not veto proof either, so literally nothing will happen for the next two years," he added.

In these groups — part of the Swing Voter Project, held by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting — 10 people identified as independents, three as Republicans and one as a Democrat.

Almost all these voters said they disapprove overall of the job Trump is doing. Many said they felt Democrats' big wins across the country were a sign that voters "want change."

Yet the participants were largely pessimistic that Congress would be able to effect change, once Democrats have control of both the House and Senate come January.

Rich Thau, president of Engagious, moderated these groups. He said these voters chiefly expect that Trump will be a major obstacle and won't give Democrats the ability to get anything done.

"And the Democrats themselves," Thau added to NPR, "[the voters] think that they're going to be sort of all over the place, that they're going to maybe focus too much on investigations. … But in terms of actually helping them do the one thing that they desperately want, which is to bring their prices down and make their lives more affordable, they are definitely dubious."

Accountability vs. the economy

Focus groups are not scientifically significant like polls. Instead, they provide a snapshot of what small groups of voters are thinking.

In this year's midterms, the Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS, found that more than half of voters said government corruption was "crucial" to their vote for Congress. That was a bit higher than the share of voters who said cost of living was "crucial."

But this small group of key voters — swing voters in a battleground state — doesn't want to see accountability for the Trump administration eclipse the economy. They want to see Democrats get rid of tariffs, lower the cost of everyday goods, and stop the war in Iran — which they blame for rising gas prices.

"I'm really concerned they're going to pursue those investigations and such," said Rick, a 63-year-old Republican. "And whether they're true or not, it doesn't really matter because there are people in the middle that are being forgotten and can't afford gas and healthcare."

Deborah, a 56-year-old independent voter, said she watched Democrats try to hold Trump accountable for years, and it hasn't yielded anything yet.

"They haven't found anything on Trump yet, so just let it go and move on," she said. "They haven't been able to prove anything, they just keep trying over and over again, and he's still in office."

"I just think it's wasting taxpayer money," added Kristen, a 38-year-old independent voter.

Steve, a 39-year-old independent, echoed a common sentiment among these voters, which is that investigations largely amount to political brinksmanship. He sees it as the parties "butting heads with each other" each cycle.

"They're going to just keep going back and forth and they're just looking for anything to mess with Trump for," he said.

Trump is the biggest obstacle

These voters, however, are no fans of Trump, despite voting for him in the 2024 election. Most said they think Trump will block Democrats' every effort in Congress.

"Trump's not going to want to compromise," said Coronda, a 45-year-old Democrat. "Trump is very set in his ways. He's very stubborn, he's going to yell 'his way or the highway.'"

Steven said he expects Democrats will introduce a lot of bills "mainly for show" once they get into office. But he doesn't expect anything to actually get signed into law.

Trump "doesn't want to be embarrassed and he won't let anything pass even if it's a good thing because he doesn't want to give credit to the Democrats," he said.

Thau said this is why most of these voters are setting their expectations low ahead of what could be some serious gridlock in Washington.

"If you have low expectations, you're not setting yourself up for disappointment," he said. "And I think these voters are not setting themselves up for disappointment. They're going in clear-eyed, expecting President Trump and the Democrats to not get along."

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